At approximately 7am on 27
January, at least two masked gunmen detonated a car bomb outside Tripoli’s
luxury Corinthia hotel, which is often frequented by foreigners during visits
to Libya’s capital. Following the blast, the attackers entered the building,
killing five of the hotel’s security guards in the ensuing gun battle. As the
assault continued through the morning, at least five foreigners (three Asians,
a US and a French citizen) were killed. The incident ended in the early
afternoon when the attackers apparently blew themselves up on the hotel’s top
floor. In a brief statement on Twitter, the Tripoli branch of the Islamic State
of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group claimed responsibility for the attack.
Meanwhile, as a further two days of peace talks between many of Libya’s warring
factions concluded in Geneva the same day, all parties emphasised that they
rejected terrorism and had made positive steps toward forming a government of
national unity.
Although
details are still emerging, the attack on the Corinthia is significant in that
it is the first major assault on foreigners by an ISIL-affiliated group in
Libya. Indeed, the death toll could have been far higher but for the fact that
the Corinthia has been comparatively deserted since the major deterioration in
Tripoli’s security situation last summer. Coming as it did just as some Western
firms were beginning to reinsert personnel into Libya, the assault at the
Corinthia has again highlighted the enduring threat to foreigners in Libya,
even in better-protected areas. Indeed, the attack provides more evidence that
Libya’s security situation is worsening as the threat from Islamist extremism
rises.
However,
the immediate effect of the assault on the Corinthia should be balanced against
developments at the political level that give rise to cautious optimism about
Libya’s longer-term future. The united condemnation of the attacks by all the
delegates attending the Geneva talks was a new, and rare, show of unity, and
despite the absence from the talks of more hard line Islamist elements -
including those from the rump General National Congress, who claimed the attack
on the Corinthia was the work of ‘Gaddafi-ists’ - the negotiations appear to be
proceeding well. Crucially, most of the Misratans, so often the bellwether of
events in Libya, are taking part, while the range of delegates attending from
across the tribal and regional spectrums is another welcome development. Even
more encouragingly, as the talks concluded, the United Nations’ Support Mission
in Libya (UNSMIL) which has overseen the dialogue process, issued a statement
that participants had ‘discussed the issue of the formation of a consensual
national unity government to ensure the unity of the country and State
institutions. This includes the government's mandate, program, the
decision-making process as well as the criteria for selecting its members.’
Local reports have quoted unnamed Libyan sources stating that this unity
government could be decided upon in as little as two weeks. While this is likely
to be optimistic, clearly progress is being made.
Such
progress must be tempered with realism. The ceasefire between broadly
secularist Operation Dignity forces and the broadly Islamist Operation Dawn
alliance declared 16 January has not held, with heavy fighting reported in the
west; near the Es Sider oil terminal; and in Benghazi. And with the oil sector
now firmly in the crosshairs, on 26 January the Anwaar Afriqya oil tanker was
approaching Misrata port when Dignity jets - wary that its cargo would find its
way to Dawn units - forced it to divert to Tobruk. The incident clearly
indicates the continuing lack of trust between the adversaries at the
operational and tactical levels, and the gap between the rhetoric of Geneva and
the reality of Libya’s complex and dynamic frontlines.
The immediate affect of the
Corinthia attack is likely to hinder Western commercial activity in Tripoli and
Libya in the short term. Unfortunately, this comes just as Aegis sources
reported an uptick in the expatriate presence in the capital. Those that do
remain will have to carefully consider their security posture in light of the
emerging extremist threat. Meanwhile, there is some way to go in hammering out
the details of any potential unity government, and with many hardliners still
not involved and happy to keep fighting, a total and binding ceasefire remains
a distant prospect. Nonetheless, the fact that delegates have met in Geneva
again, and have agreed to the next phase in the dialogue process, is a
significant step forward. There is also clear momentum with the process now,
thus making it harder to obstruct. Indeed, while an abortive spectacular attack
in a hotel has finally put Libya back in the headlines of the Western media,
commercially, it is the continued targeting of oil and gas assets that is much
more worrying.
